节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:5/10


JFE控股2025财年三季度财报显示,全球主要经济体增长分化,通胀虽回落但复苏缓慢、不均衡。欧洲中东地缘冲突持续、美联储小幅降息、贸易保护抬头及劳动力短缺等因素叠加,全球经济不确定性上升,下游用钢需求受经济不景气与投资下滑拖累,钢材市场需求疲软、价格承压。

2025财年三季度,日本经济增长乏力,受出口疲软、日元兑美元贬值、国内劳动力不足及私人住宅投资下降影响。下游用钢领域,汽车与建筑机械出口遭美日关税政策负面影响;造船业产量基本稳定,用钢需求短期无显著增长;建筑业因建材涨价与劳动力短缺,钢材需求仍疲软,预计日本国内钢材表观消费量下滑。

同期国际铁矿石、炼焦煤及废钢价格小幅上涨,钢材价格小幅下跌,成品钢与原料价差收窄;日元兑美元贬值利好JFE控股钢材出口。受上述因素影响,JFE控股2025财年三季度粗钢产量环比二季度(581万吨)降3.8%至559万吨,同比2024三季度(583万吨)降4.1%;钢材发货量环比二季度(482万吨)降2.1%至472万吨,同比降3.1%;钢材均价环比二季度(11.92万日元/吨)涨0.7%至12万日元/吨,同比降5.5%。出口收入占净营收比重环比二季度(42.8%)降1.7个百分点至41.1%,仍高于2024三季度(40%)。

2025财年前三季度粗钢产量同比2024前三季度(1752万吨)降2.9%至1701万吨;钢材发货量同比降1.9%至1425万吨;钢材均价同比降9.6%至11.99万日元/吨。出口收入占比同比降0.3个百分点至41.3%。受发货量同环比减少、均价环比微涨同比下跌影响,JFE控股2025财年三季度净营收环比二季度(11173亿日元)增2.7%至11476亿日元,同比降6.3%;营业利润环比二季度(295亿日元)增75.3%至517亿日元,同比降40.8%;营业利润率环比提1.9个百分点至4.5%,低于2024三季度(7.1%);税前利润环比增89.5%至451亿日元,同比降44.8%;净利润环比增74.5%至342亿日元,同比降40.6%。

2025财年前三季度净营收同比降8%至3.38万亿日元;营业利润同比降38%至975亿日元;营业利润率同比降1.4个百分点至2.9%;..

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