节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
美伊冲突的溢出影响已从能源供应紧缺逐步转向需求破坏，工业金属铜成为直接受害者。研究指出，霍尔木兹海峡持续中断可能引发铜供应过剩，并大幅削减主要生产商收益。
分析师预测，若冲突旷日持久、油价突破每桶150美元，将拖累全球经济增长，铜需求增速或被限制在0.5%至1%区间，铜价届时可能跌破每吨10000美元，且精炼铜供应过剩规模或达10万至20万吨。
除需求疲软外，硫酸等炼铜原材料因霍尔木兹海峡中断面临供应紧缺与价格上涨，将推高铜生产商生产成本。在此预期下，铜生产商利润率将显著承压，成本较高的生产商在冲突中尤为脆弱——分析师估计，旷日持久的冲突可能导致铜单位成本上升10%至20%。
根据相关报告，分析师基于冲突持续时长给出不同展望：若冲突迅速解决，铜市场将恢复少量供应缺口，价格或维持在12000美元/吨；..
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