位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
债券交易员因伊朗冲突可能升级心生恐慌，正寻求对冲最坏情景——即美联储或在未来几周内被迫加息。追踪美联储政策的期权市场中，与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的押注需求已浮现，这些押注对应最早两周内加息的情景；若4月29日美联储政策会议前市场大幅提升加息预期，此类交易将获利。
针对紧急加息的对冲需求激增，标志市场情绪急剧逆转。一个月前市场预期今年年底最多三次25个基点降息，而2月28日冲突爆发以来，掉期市场交易员已计入12月前加息约50%的概率，短期美债面临进一步重定价风险。
Constitution Capital利率部门主管杰夫·舒赫指出，最新押注虽不反映市场基准情景，但体现市场对通胀快速上升的担忧——这将使ȿ..多头头寸；SOFR期货抛售及美债收益率曲线上行令大型基金措手不及，此类交易是基金管理利率风险的廉价权宜之计，可降低爆仓风险。
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