节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
2026年2月27日至3月27日，铁矿石（CFR，KORE 62%铁品位/青岛）价格上涨6.9%至107.74美元/吨；3月均价106.33美元/吨，较2月101.53美元/吨回升，当月价格收复部分前期跌幅，逼近108美元/吨关口。
3月上半月，供应端担忧主导市场情绪。核心驱动包括必和必拓对华发运受阻、部分进口矿品种不确定性及澳大利亚供应中断风险；叠加高运费成本、中国钢厂临时限产解除后的补库预期，以及中国2026年GDP4.5%-5%增长目标对钢材及原料需求的提振，支撑价格上行。
同期市场对消息面敏感度较高。3月16-18日，必和必拓原料短缺担忧缓解叠加基本面需求指标疲软，价格出现波动；中国建筑旺季启动迟缓，钢厂利润低位，生铁产量未现稳步增长，钢厂采购以刚需..
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