节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
沪铜期货2606合约周二收盘下跌0.10%，报收95330元/吨；上海1#电解铜现货报价95610元/吨，较前一交易日上涨575元/吨。
宏观层面，美以伊冲突持续发酵，成为影响有色金属价格走势的核心宏观变量。受能源价格走弱拖累，美国下半年GDP增速或回落至潜在趋势线下方，美联储货币政策面临两难抉择。
行业供应端，嘉能可澳大利亚精炼厂罢工（涉及30万吨产能）、力拓美国肯尼科特矿事故停产、智利国家铜业产量波动，加剧市场对供应稳定性的担忧。尽管2026年1月全球精炼铜...铜精矿TC现货指数持续下行，4-5月国内冶炼厂集中检修或导致电解铜产量超预期回落。消费端本周迎来清明假期前备货窗口，下游企业或提前补库，现货成交有望改善。
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