节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
中东紧张局势持续升级背景下，全球铜市场正面临供给冲击与需求预期弱化的双重压力。
美东时间7日（周二），卫星数据机构Earth-i监测显示，伊朗两座核心铜冶炼厂近期出现系统性停产迹象。该机构通过热信号、废气排放、库存变化及车辆活动等多维数据研判，相关冶炼厂工业活动显著降至低位。其中，伊朗最大铜冶炼厂Sar Chesmeh自3月28日（上上周六）停运，国有冶炼厂Khatoon Abad亦于上周末停止生产。
两座炼厂合计年产能超37万吨，是伊朗精炼铜供应的核心支柱——Sar Chesmeh年产能逾25万吨，Khatoon Abad约12万吨，同时在区域铜贸易中承担重要补充功能。卫星数据反映的“持续性热源消失、排放下降、运输活动停滞”等特征，指向生产链条遭遇外部冲击而非短期设备检修。
近期中东地区钢铁厂、油气设施等工业资产频繁受冲突波及，显示地缘风险已从能源领域扩散至金属供应链。伊朗两大铜炼厂停摆，标志着地缘冲突对金属供给的冲击进一步深化。铜冶炼属高耗能连续性生产，一旦中断，恢复周期长、成本高，供..
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