节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：10/10
高盛警告，若中东冲突持续，铜价面临下行风险。分析师指出，霍尔木兹海峡存在潜在中断风险，长期封锁或推高能源价格并放缓全球经济增长。2026年初铜价曾突破每吨14500美元，但此后已下跌2.5%；仅伊朗相关冲突就导致价格下跌7%，逼近每吨12000美元。能源成本上升与工业需求疲软正进一步施压市场。
彭博情报亦指出，持续中断或使铜需求增速受限至0.5%-1%；若紧张局势延续，价格可能跌破每吨10000美元。..
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