节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利好参考度：3/10
全球镍市场预计2026年转为供应短缺3.2万吨，2025年为供应过剩28.3万吨，系2021年以来首次年度缺口。世界原镍产量预计从2025年的388万吨降至2026年的371.5万吨，同期消费量将从359.6万吨增至374.7万吨。
供应收缩主因是全球最大镍生产国印尼2026年实施更严格矿业监管，全年镍矿开采配额显著低于2025年水平，虽允许一次上调申请但需经政府供需评估。此外，4月15日生效的新版基准价格机制首次将钴、铁、铬纳入定价公式，并全面上调..
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