节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：10/10
全球锡市场当前呈现实体供需动态与市场定价的显著脱节。尽管矿山生产趋于稳定且交易所库存上升，伦敦金属交易所三个月期锡价格仍维持在每吨55,225美元的历史高位附近，年初至今涨幅达36%。传统指标显示市场正转向更为平衡的状态，但该金属价格仍受结构性长期稀缺的投机性叙事驱动。
实体市场正处于再平衡阶段。当前基本面显示供应链趋于稳定，全球矿山产量预计今年增长8.7%，主要得益于缅甸Man Maw矿恢复运营及刚果（金）Bisie矿产量保持稳定。与此同时，中国锡精矿进口量已升至2023年以来的最高水平。库存数据进一步支撑市场降温的判断，伦敦金属交易所库存自年初以来增长60%，叠加上海期货交易所及场外库存，全球交易所总库存从10月的1.1万吨增至近2万吨。此外，伦敦金属交易所时间价差维持正常升ư..
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