节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
铝价已飙升至四年多来的最高水平，受中东地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，该地区紧张局势威胁到关键工业供应链。随着军事活动加剧地区不稳定，贸易中断风险已对伦敦金属交易所（LME）造成冲击，导致基准价格大幅上涨，凸显全球铝物流的脆弱性。
中东占全球铝冶炼产能的约9%，是该行业的关键枢纽。对霍尔木兹海峡关闭的持续担忧限制了该地区铝出口流动，同时阻碍了冶炼所需关键原材料的进口。这一瓶颈加剧了全球供应担忧，分析师预测本年度市场赤字将超过200万吨。
当前供应紧张的严重程度在LME市场结构中得到明显体现。铝市场正经历极端现货溢价，现金合约对三个月远期合约的溢价已飙升至19年高点。这一现..
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