节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
经济合作与发展组织（OECD）近期发布OECD 钢铁展望 2026行业报告，预计全球钢铁产能过剩问题将持续加剧，叠加贸易规避、原材料及能源价格上涨、项目延期等多重因素，全球钢铁产业链运营压力持续攀升。
报告测算，到2028年全球钢铁过剩产能将达7.45亿吨，较当前OECD成员国钢铁总产量高出3.19亿吨；同期全球规划新增炼钢产能约1.39亿吨，较2025年增长5.7%，但全球钢铁年均需求增速仅为0.9%，供需失衡矛盾加剧。新增产能主要集中于非OECD国家，且其扩张高度依赖政府补贴支持。
报告显示，2025年中国钢铁出口量达1.31亿吨，创历史峰值，较2020年增长153%，出口总量超过欧盟当年钢产量；其中半成品钢材对东南亚出口同比激增300%。报告同时指出，当前钢材迂回贸易现象日益普遍，具体表现为中国热轧原料输往东南ĺ..
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