节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利好参考度:10/10


秘鲁总统大选计票进入最后阶段,两位候选人竞争胶着。据国家选举办公室最新统计,计票完成95.8%,左翼候选人罗伯托·桑切斯以50%得票率微弱领先,保守派候选人藤森庆子得票49.9%。此前藤森庆子在统计和民调中占优,随着农村地区选票计入,桑切斯支持率逐步上升。若胜出,其将成为秘鲁十年来第九任总统。

GEM业咨询公司分析师指出,秘鲁市场长期面临政治不稳定性。即便桑切斯获胜,该国债券与货币仍可能面临大幅调整。政治不确定性已引发投资者困惑,加剧对世界第三大产铜国数十亿美元矿业投资的担忧。秘鲁央行数据显示,4月商业信心降至近两年来最低水平,近期债券及货币表现亦落后于邻国。2025年秘鲁矿业投资目标60亿美元,铜价与金价坚挺有望进一步刺激投资增长。

两位候选人经济政策存在显著差异。藤森庆子作为政坛资深人物,主张市场经济;..采矿税协议、加大对农村社区资金倾斜。其还提出逐步淘汰露天采矿,而该国多数矿山采用该模式,并建议将国际储备用于社会支出。

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