节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
中国需求回暖及中东供给风险加剧，推动铜价强势上行。伦敦金属交易所期铜周二上涨1.2%至14106.50美元/吨，逐步靠近1月14500美元/吨的历史新高；纽约COMEX期铜同步飙升至每磅6.6455美元的纪录水平。尽管伊朗战争停火协议脆弱，铜价依旧逆势走强，主要受中国需求复苏、中东硫磺供应紧张及AI热潮带动电气用铜需求激增等因素共振，铜价与美股科技板块相关性显著增强。
荷兰国际集团大宗商品策略师指出，铜价突破14000美元/吨凸显供需格局极度紧张，美国以外地区库存偏低及供给约束持续，令铜价对新增需求高度敏感。尽管伊朗战争初期铜价曾大幅下挫，但今年以来累计涨幅仍达13%，科技行业增长预期升温及非洲至印尼等主要铜矿供应中断共同支撑铜价韧性。
铜市正遭遇结构性供给问题形成的“完美风暴”。铜冶炼关键原料硫酸供应持续紧张，主因伊朗战争引发霍尔木兹海峡航运中断。全球铜冶炼供应链高度依赖波斯湾地区，该区域去年贡献全球近四分之一的硫磺供应，..
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