节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
印尼贸易部8日发布针对煤炭、棕榈油及铁合金的出口新规，旨在强化税收征管以遏制逃税行为，并助力稳定近期承压的印尼盾汇率。此政策调整对高度依赖煤炭进口的日本、韩国市场产生显著冲击。
据路透社报道，新规明确自2027年1月1日起，上述大宗商品出口业务将由印尼政府指定的国营企业独家运营，覆盖合同签订、货物发运至款项结算的全流程统筹管理。过渡期内，现有出口商可正常发运货物，但需向指定国营企业完成线上报备程序。
国际能源资讯平台Oil Price 8日指出，印尼新规公布后，亚洲基准煤炭价格跳涨至近两年来高点。中东冲突升级导致霍尔木兹海峡油气运输风险加剧，市场对煤炭的替代性需求显著攀升，亚洲能源进口国及欧盟正加速寻求中东油气替代方案。彭博社分析认为，印尼大宗商品出口新规或延缓煤炭出口发货效率，叠加东北亚夏季用电高峰临近，空调用电需求带动煤炭消费上行，供应端受阻将进一步加剧市场紧张格局。
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