节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：10/10
6月21日，全球最大铝土矿供应国几内亚正推进产业转型，从原矿出口转向加工品供应，试图复制印尼镍矿发展路径，重塑全球铝供应链。几内亚铝土矿占全球海运贸易量约70%、总产量约40%，过去十年依托中国资本投入，产量反超澳大利亚成为全球主导供应方。
但扩张伴随代价，2025年该国铝土矿出口量同比增长25%至1.83亿吨，价格却近乎腰斩，呈现“量增价跌”态势。为扭转局面，几内亚政府效仿印尼及刚果（金），通过实施出口配额与产量限制遏制无序扩张，核心目标是推动铝土矿在国内完成向氧化铝的初级加工转化。
中铝已承诺投资建设年产120万吨氧化铝精炼厂，几内亚政府计划至2030年建成5至6座同类工厂，总产能预计达700万吨。目前该国仅有Friguia工厂具备有限产能，..
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