节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：8/10
据彭博社报道，澳大利亚投资银行麦格理集团维持其2026年铁矿石均价103美元/吨的预测，称今年上半年价格保持相对韧性，主要原因是运费上涨和生产成本上升，而非市场基本面走强。该行还维持第三季度铁矿石均价100美元/吨的预测，并估计高企的运费已将行业成本底线抬升至约85美元/吨。
市场关注点预计重回供需。麦格理表示，随着市场注意力回归基本面，运费市场的支撑可能减弱。该行称，几内亚西芒杜铁矿石项目的投产速度快于预期，预计将推动全球供应增长。今年上半年，几内亚强劲的铝土矿出口及长途航运路线支撑了好望角型船运费，有助..
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