节点：炼铁/粗钢位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10


焦炭再现提降 钢材步入淡季 价格是否还将下跌近日，唐山、邢台、天津、石家庄等地对焦炭第四轮提降，幅度50 – 55元/吨，铁水成本下移25 – 27.5元/吨，废钢市场受压，基地老板叫苦不迭。越是这种情况越需理智，可从以下方面分析。

供应上，6月以来到货同比好于前两年，环比五月略差。端午假期后市场震荡偏弱，虽有刺激上涨但持续性弱，出货积极，供应相对稳定。因6月进入淡季，产废与需求端回落，流通资源较五月减少。不过临近月底，部分产废端清算出货，资源有望小幅回升，对废钢价格不利。

需求方面，六月后钢企需求回落居多。一是焦炭下跌，铁水比废钢便宜超200元/吨，钢企多用铁水替代废钢；二是..

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