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上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔央行年会上意外“放鸽”，引发华尔街投行对美联储降息路径预期的调整。摩根士丹利近期也加入此行列。
摩根士丹利指出，鲍威尔在年会上对劳动力市场风险论调的转变，是其调整预期的关键原因。该行此前预测美联储直至2026年3月都将按兵不动，如今预计美联储从9月起降息。
大摩周一报告显示，预测美联储9月降息25个基点，12月再降25基点，2026年每季度降息一次，每次25基点，最终目标利率区间降至2.75% – 3.0%。报告认为，鲍威尔论调与此前对通胀持续性和低失业率的强调不同，意味着美联储或先发制人应对劳动力市场下行风险。
同时，大摩表示，仅在就业人数大幅下降时，才会出现超25基点的大规ƨ..
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