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库存紧张，铜价偏强震荡
本文从宏观经济、政策及行业供需等多方面，分析铜价走势。
一、美降息预期支撑资本市场多头情绪
上周美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，上月增速上修为0.9%，彰显消费韧性超预期。本周二季度GDP修正值季率增长3.3%，初值为3% ，源于居民消费超预期与进口减少。但7月耐用品订单月率下滑2.8%，表明制造业疲弱。整体看，美国经济经短暂冲击后回归正轨，为软着陆增添信心。
政策层面，特朗普催促投资并威胁加税，欧盟取消美国工业品关税以换取汽车关税下调。同时，美国上调印度商品关税，欧洲拟制裁伊朗。此外，特朗普解雇联储成员，引发市场对联储独立性担忧。美欧股市高位，美元低位震荡，市场等待降息，利多为主。
二、中国股市强劲，中期信心增强
本周国内7月规模以上工业企业利润同比下滑1.5% ，降幅连续两月收窄。1 – 7月利润同比负1.7%，降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点，企业盈利恢复利于经济企稳。
商务部9月将出台扩大服务消费政策，刺激消费重心转向服务，实物消费补贴或减少。资本..
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