节点：炼铁/粗钢位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10


钢价大涨现冷思考：废钢性价比崩塌，谁接最后一棒近期，铁矿、焦炭期货价格狂飙突进，带动螺纹钢期价冲破3100大关，沙钢也时隔多日调涨废钢，原料端呈现一片“涨”声。然而，统计局数据却揭露繁荣背后的假象。1 – 6月，全国房地产开发投资同比暴跌11.2%，新开工面积下滑19.6%，施工面积持续萎缩9%，建筑钢材需求处于“至暗时刻”。

这种情况下，黑色系的反弹更像是上游的“独角戏”。尽管铁矿涨势创新高，但下游需求并未放量跟上，其反弹注定是震荡反复的过程。钢价上行会引发地产端抵抗，上游正反馈将遭遇下游负反馈冲击，..

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