节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
近期，沪铜价格呈现冲高回落态势，步入调整阶段。从宏观层面分析，美联储现已迈入降息周期，市场风险偏好因此回升。在基本面方面，铜原料供应紧张局势凸显，冶炼企业面临停产或减产风险。短期内下游企业展开补库行动，长期来看铜消费仍存增量空间，预计后续沪铜价格具备向上驱动因素。
美联储降息显著提振市场风险偏好。美联储如期降息25个基点，承认劳动力市场走弱并提及通胀上行。点阵图暗示年内或再降息2次，明年预计降息1次。知名财经记者Nick Timiraos指出，对就业市场放缓的担忧促使美联储转向小幅降息。尽管美国经济仍具韧性，美联储降息为市场注入更多流动性，有力提振市场风险偏好。
铜原料供应紧张状况可能向冶炼端传导。铜精矿供应持续紧张，现货TC表现疲弱，处于 -40美元/吨附近。硫酸价格下跌也抑制冶炼厂利润，持续亏损或影响后续生产。因原料紧张传导，部分冶炼企业9 – 10月进入检修期，预计精铜产量环比下降。长远看，市..
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