节点：炼铁/粗钢位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
5000点跳水现况分析 市场是否到顶 狂欢后需冷静7月23日，大宗商品市场高位剧烈震荡。龙头品种多晶硅涨停板跳水近5000点，碳酸锂09合约跳水近6000点，期螺也大幅跳水，唐山地区普方坯资源降价，广东多家电炉厂下调废钢采购价格。
此次跳水原因，消息面与基本面无明显变化，一是近期获利盘需兑现，连续上涨后有人锁定利润；二是市场情绪过于亢奋需缓解，要观察下游对现货拉涨的接受程度。
今年上半年，废钢市场交易活跃度下降，价格震荡重心略下移且波动不大。以华东地区为例，今年废钢价格持续低位窄幅波动，较24年同比降400元左右，价格弹性缺失。
需求端，华东钢厂1 – 6月用量同比降5.32% ，原因包括钢厂自主限产、铁废差缩小，上半年其他原料领跌，铁水成本下降，部分高炉钢厂高铁耗生产，废钢需求减弱。
供应端，长期熊市使基地心态改变，废钢资源少难大跌，Ľ..
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