节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：3/10


9月25日（周四），花旗银行鉴于印尼Grasberg铜矿运营中断，将0 – 3个月及第四季度铜价预测从每吨10,000美元上调至10,500美元 。
该行进一步预计，2026年市场缺口将达40万吨。同时认为，明年铜价可能升至每吨12,000美元，甚至有可能攀升至每吨14,000美元。
值得关注的是，中国作为全球最大的铜消费国，其铜...上游资源对外依存度不断攀升，这使得中国在获取铜资源时对外部市场依赖增强，面临更多外部风险。中游加工环节产能过剩，导致资源浪费和市场竞争加剧，影响行业整体效益。下游需求受高铜价抑制，高铜价使得下游企业生产成本上升，抑制了需求，阻碍产业链的顺畅运转。

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