节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
全球镍市场明年或连续第三年过剩
日本顶级镍冶炼企业住友金属矿业（SMM）周二表示，由于印度尼西亚产量持续增长，全球镍市场明年预计将连续第三年处于过剩状态 。
SMM在其半年市场展望报告中称，2026年镍过剩量预计为25.6万吨，略低于今年的26.3万吨。预计印度尼西亚低品位镍生铁产量将增长4.1%，达到176万吨。2025年，印尼镍生铁产量预计大幅跃升10.3% 。
据SMM分析，受稳定的不锈钢消费支撑，2026年全球镍需求预计同比增长2.4%，达352万吨；供应预计增长2.0%，至378万吨。SMM总经理今井四郎向记者表示，预测基于美国关税对需求无重大影响，因今年至今影响有限 。
今井四...
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