节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
本文基于华泰期货观点，探讨贸易战恶化对铝及相关产品基本面的影响。
铝市场现状：截至2025 – 10 – 10，伦铝、沪铝及各地区现货升贴水有相应数值。从供应看，电解铝建成与运行产能、行业开工率明确；需求方面，铝线缆、板带、箔、型材等龙头企业开工率及环比变化呈现。库存上，中国外相关库存数据清晰。利润方面，电解铝行业加权生产成本与即时生产利润可观。
氧化铝市场情况：2025 – 10 – 10，氧化铝主力合约及各地区现货价格既定。成本上，几内亚铝土矿及国产铝土矿价格、海运费等构成成本因素，且当前成本端博弈激烈。库存方面，全国氧化铝总库存、各环节库存均有变化。利润上，进口矿与国产矿生产的成本及盈利状况不同ϼ..
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