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产业驱动有限 沪铝维持震荡【机构评论】

文章为国投期货对沪铝市场的分析。宏观层面，上周鲍威尔称自美联储上月会议后经济前景变化不大，未来数月或停止缩表，强化宽松周期预期。美国9月CPI数据预计10月24日发布，料不改变10月28 – 29日FOMC政策会议降息预期。中美贸易、俄乌战争、美国停摆等处于谈判关键期，其进展影响市场风险情绪。

供应方面，近期中国电解铝运行产能稳定在4400万吨上方，产能变动主要是置换。需求上，虽上周中国铝下游加工龙头企业开工率持平，但与去年同期相比下降1.4个百分点。铝板带行业生产稳健，采购谨慎；铝线缆行业受电网提货疲软及光伏需求走弱等因素压制，利润承压；铝建筑型材持稳但需求疲软，光伏型材因组件减产拖累开工，工业型材订单持续性存忧；铝箔工业需求支撑生产，但出口受制裁拖累。

库存上，过去一周铝锭社库、铝棒社会库存均下降，节后首周季节性去库幅度处于近年来中性水平。现货方面ϼ..

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