节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：10/10


期货行情方面，各有色金属呈现不同态势。

铜市场，美元指数虽强势突破关键阻力位，但中美延长关税休战期以及IMF上调中国经济增长预期，提振了市场风险偏好。国内处于淡季，供需两弱，不过流通货源收紧，且升水结构对价格形成支撑。同时，矿紧局面持续，库存处于低位，预计短期铜价延续偏强震荡。

铝市场，因美联储政策预期分化，美指创逾月新高，对铝价形成压制。然而，国内社会库存累积压力有限，新能源汽车需求具有韧性，“反内卷”政策也修复了市场情绪。鉴于基本面供需双弱，沪铝呈现窄幅震荡走势。

锌市场，美联储政策声明成为焦点，鸽派信号预期升温，加上中美贸易缓和，使得市场情绪回暖。尽管国内需求疲软，但政策托底，且IMF上调中..

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