节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10


中信证券研究部于最新发布的报告中指出，在2026 年，由于供给层面呈现低迷态势，而需求保持稳健，全球精炼铜的供给缺口预计将扩大 50% 。在此情形下，LME 铜价有望在 10000 美元 / 吨以上充分释放其向上的价格弹性。从投资配置角度，建议关注铜板块所蕴含的机遇。

中信证券经分析认为，目前存量项目不断出现重大扰动因素，增量项目亦面临瓶颈。在此背景下，今年第三季度全球主要铜矿企业产量相较去年同期下降近 5% ，预计第四季度产量收缩态势仍将延续。原料短缺以及潜在的“反内卷”因素，将促使第四季度中国..

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