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关税驱动宏观波动 镍价呈现震荡态势
在宏观层面，整个月度美国关税问题持续引发市场波动。月初，由于关税信函带来的压力，市场弥漫着浓厚的悲观预期。随着各项贸易协定逐步落地，协议关税相较信函关税大幅降低，市场情绪才逐渐好转。美国二季度经济数据展现出强劲韧性，劳动力市场保持稳健，美联储延续偏鹰派立场，特朗普与鲍威尔之间的博弈不断，使得市场预期美联储降息时间推迟至10月。
从成本角度分析，印尼和菲律宾地区的气候干扰因素减弱，镍矿供应逐渐趋于宽松。印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但目前镍矿价格走弱的迹象尚不显著。
再看基本面，受钢企控制产量的影响，国内7月不锈钢产量预期大幅缩减，印尼不锈钢产量虽有小幅环比增长，但增量无法弥补国内..
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