节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：6/10
沪铝短期关注资金行为
本文由正信期货发布，主要对沪铝市场进行分析。周三，电解铝主力01合约增仓放量上涨 ，夜盘小幅高开后偏强运行。沪铝社会库存61.6万吨，较上周累库0.9万吨，处于60万吨以上，相对历史同期偏中性，高于去年同期。现货铝锭成交均价较周二上涨，现货对11合约报价贴水小幅收敛。
从宏观层面看，中美贸易协议及美联储降息落地，短期利多出尽。但受协议结果影响，中期仍偏乐观。美国就业数据大幅下滑，增加12月降息预期，推动贵金属及有色金属价格偏强。同时，美国CPI数据即将公布，市场资金交易再通胀预期，助涨有色及贵金属价格。
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Given the current situation where the peak season is ending and social inventory is neutral, can the upward trend of沪铝 really continue just due to supply – side support? Considering the lack of effective resonance from the demand – side, isn’t it too risky to be overly optimistic about the short – t…