节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：4/10
据BNAmericas网站报道，2025年智利铜产量预计与去年持平，约550万吨。这主要归因于科亚瓦西和英美集团南方公司产量下滑，以及智利国家铜业公司旗下特尼恩特地下采矿中段事故的影响。智利铜业委员会在最新报告中指出，随着相关铜矿生产回归正常，2026年该国铜产量预计增长2.5%，达到560万吨。
科亚瓦西铜矿因开采品位下降、选厂用水供应不足，导致铜回收效率降低，产量已连续5年下滑。其主要股东嘉能可、英美集团及三井已采取多项调整措施，以缓解产量下降带来的影响。该矿产量从2020年的62.91万吨降至2024年的55.86万吨，今年预计继续下降。第三季度，嘉能可报告其产量同比下降31%，减少5.9万吨至13.07万吨。此外，水短缺问题影响了科亚瓦西所在塔拉帕卡大区的精矿生产，但2026年新淡化厂满负荷生产后状况有望改善。
英美集团的洛斯布朗西斯同样面临品位下降问题，虽上个季度有所改善，但需2027年重启因控制成本关闭的多诺索2才能恢复稳定生...
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Will the new desalination plant in Tarapacá region really improve the production situation of Collahuasi in 2026 as expected? And with the ongoing issues like grade decline in many mines, can the cooperation plans between mining companies effectively boost production and meet the market demand? Also…