节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）情绪：中性参考度：2/10


2024年日本镍矿市场呈现深度收缩态势，消费与进口规模同比大幅下滑47.5%至58.9万吨，市场价值同步下降57.6%至4200万美元，延续了2013-2014年行业高峰后的持续下行趋势。

展望未来，市场有望开启温和复苏通道，预计2024-2035年期间销量复合年增长率（CAGR）为1.5%，至2035年销量将达69.4万吨；价值维度CAGR为1.8%，名义批发价口径下市场价值将升至5100万美元。

从进口结构看，菲律宾与新喀里多尼亚为日本镍矿独家供应国，2024年分别供应30.7万吨与28.2万吨，占进口总量的100%；价值端新喀里多尼亚以2300万美元居首，菲律宾为1600万美元。

进口均价方面，2024年整体进口价每吨66美元，同比下降31.2%，其中新喀里多尼亚进口价每吨80美元，高于菲律宾的52美元，反映不同供应国资ƺ..

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