Against the backdrop of global mine disruptions and robust demand momentum, UBS anticipates copper prices to climb further into next year, with the market deficit expected to widen significantly. In a Friday note, UBS analysts upwardly revised their 2026 quarterly copper price forecasts: March 2026 at $11,500 per tonne, June at $12,000 per tonne, September at $12,500 per tonne, and introduced a new December 2026 target of $13,000 per tonne. These adjustments are primarily attributed to persistent supply risks and declining inventories, which are set to maintain tight market conditions.

UBS highlighted that 2024 mine disruptions—including a fatal incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru—underscore structural supply constraints likely to extend into 2026. The bank’s revised deficit projections reflect these risks: 230,000 tonnes in 2025 (up from the previous...

On the demand side, UBS expects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by key sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, power grid investments, and data centers. Given this supply-demand imbalance, the bank noted that any short-term price weakness should be transient, recommending market participants remain long copper or adopt volatility-selling strategies.

As of Tuesday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded 0.3% higher at over $10,777 per tonne—approximately $500 below the record high of $11,200 per tonne hit in late October. Prices on the COMEX exchange rose 1.1% to $5.0215 per pound, equivalent to around $11,070 per tonne.