节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：5/10
宏观偏谨慎背景下，沪铝呈现震荡运行特征。原铝产量保持稳定，即期冶炼利润因电解铝价格上涨走高，10月行业平均成本、最高成本分别为15889元/吨、19477元/吨。消费端，国内现货转为贴水，下游龙头企业开工率62%环比提升0.4%，铝线缆受电网订单带动回升，其他板块持稳；铝锭与铝棒小幅去库0.25万吨，显示国内需求仍具韧性；海外库存大增后持稳，现货贴水扩大，伦铝强势有所弱化。
氧化铝方面，现货价格趋稳。周度运行产能自9月底以来下降约277万吨，以短期检修为主，且亏损幅度不深，减产规模与上轮差距较大。总库存持续增加，电解铝厂延续补库，氧化铝厂库存降低，港口库存上升；未来两个月到期仓单量较大，明年上半年仍有大量新增产能释放，供需压力仍较显著。
铝合金领域，订单带动合金厂开工率上升，成本因原铝价格高企保持坚挺，冶炼利润为负，后续存在减产可能；终端汽车处于冲量阶段，需求仍有韧性。AD..
The complete content requires login
You can view the full content after logging in. If you don't have an account, please register first.
This Website publishes publicly available information that SMMNN deems reliable, but makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information provided by SMMNN is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice to any entity. Members of the Website shall not replace their own independent judgment with such information.
