节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
美联储周一释放宽松信号，12月降息预期快速攀升至80%以上。电解铝基本面方面，上周铝水比例小幅回落，铝价回调后下游采购积极性有所提升，短期供需矛盾并不突出。综合来看，电解铝基本面暂未出现显著失衡，短期宏观利好支撑铝价，沪铝预计维持高位震荡格局，后续需重点跟踪降息概率的变化情况。
氧化铝当前仍处于过剩运行态势。国内产能维持高位水平，过剩格局明显，同时进口窗口持续打开，前期进口氧化铝货源陆续到港，新疆地区库容已基本饱和，后续大量..
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