节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：7/10
11月28日中国宣布暂停总计约200万吨新建精炼铜冶炼产能项目，引发全球金属市场高度关注。多位分析师及交易员在上海世界铜大会期间指出，此举短期对铜市场影响有限，因暂停项目多处于规划或早期阶段，当前在建产能仍将陆续投放，未来两年中国冶炼产能仍将持续增长，难以缓解矿端紧缺压力。
近年来中国冶炼产能扩张使其成为全球精炼铜增量主要来源，但矿端因多国矿山中断、罢工及品位下降导致供应收缩，TC/RC加工费跌至历史罕见负值区间，冶炼企业面临加工环节亏损甚至倒贴局面。此次暂停新产能项目更多是政策层ɇ..煤炭、锂等行业已纳入产能调控，铜冶炼被触及象征该行业或逐步面临类似钢铁铝行业的政策收紧。
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