节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
铜价周二出现上涨，交易商正同步评估供应端中断风险与美国创纪录库存带来的双向影响。供应端方面，印尼自由港公司宣布将格拉斯伯格铜矿2026年产量计划从70万吨大幅下调至47.8万吨，削减幅度超30%，这一调整直接源于9月发生的致命泥石流事故持续影响，矿山生产恢复进度不及预期。
瑞银上周五明确上调明年铜价展望，其核心逻辑在于矿山生产持续受扰引发的供应紧张格局，叠加全球电气化进程与清洁能源领域投资扩张带来的长期需求支撑，供需错配预期成为机构看多铜价的关键依据。库存端则呈现分化，纽约..战略性囤货行为也推动美国库存水平显著高于伦敦和上海交易所。
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