节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：8/10
日本铜冶炼企业正与全球矿商就2026年铜精矿加工费（TC/RC）展开单独谈判，试图脱离中国主导的全球定价基准，成为当前铜产业链核心关注点。TC/RC作为冶炼厂核心收入来源，其水平与铜精矿供需紧密相关——精矿供应紧张时TC/RC下降。近年全球冶炼产能扩张速度显著快于矿山产能，尤其是中国新增冶炼产能持续释放，加剧铜精矿资源争夺，推动全球TC/RC不断走低。
2025年度中国冶炼厂与智利矿商达成的TC/RC仅为21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅，创近年低位；而日本冶炼厂以25美元/吨和2.5美分/磅的条件成交，已显现出与中国体系的分化趋势。日本矿业协会主席田中徹也表示，中国主导的低TC/RC定价持续挤压冶炼厂利润，日本企业希望建...
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