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美国银行全球研究（BofA Global Research）最新预测显示，美联储将在12月货币政策会议上降息25个基点，核心依据为美国劳动力市场疲弱，且政策制定者近期表态释放提前降息信号。此前，该行曾预期美联储12月维持利率不变。同时，美银调整长期预期，预计2026年6月和7月美联储将分别再降息25个基点，终端利率最终降至3.00%-3.25%。
美银分析师在报告中指出，对明年进一步降息的预测基于美联储领导层变动，而非经济基本面解读。上周消息显示，白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特成为下届美联储主席热门人选，其货币政策立场偏向鸽派，核心主张为尽快降息以规避经济衰退风险，与美国总统特朗普的利率政策倾向高度一致。此外，纽约联储主席、联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席约翰·威Ż..
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