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7 – 8月商品市场及宏观形势分析

7月商品市场价格涨势加速，月初中央财经委员会提出 “依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争” 与 “推动落后产能有序退出”，“反内卷” 题材受热议，商品、股市借机反弹，玻璃、多晶硅、焦煤等成热点，焦煤波动幅度超50%。7月商品价格延续6月反弹，完成对4月跳空窗口 “补缺”，下旬末因期货交易所降温措施开始回调。

7月行情符合预期驱动型特点，弱现实下反内卷政策驱动预期回摆，相关期货品种上涨，730会议后热潮消退。4 – 5月市场单一逻辑驱动，价格偏弱，“反内卷” 叠加行业主动降负荷，新生逻辑受追捧致价格快速上涨，后因监管交易逻辑转移，价格回归。

国际宏观层面：7月服务业推动美日欧景气度回升，但制造业分化，抢进口消退影响显现。美国向25个经济体发关税通知，各国与美贸易磋商持续，关税不确定性影响美联储降息节奏，引发市场对美财政担忧，全球金融市场波动。全..

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