节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
上周铜价冲高回落，主因部分鹰派官员表达反对连续降息立场，CME观察工具显示1月延续降息概率偏低；日央行加息预期上行或影响全球外汇套利市场格局；此外，市场担忧AI泡沫破裂风险令资产遭抛售并蔓延至金属市场。鹰派官员反对连续降息与AI泡沫破裂担忧是核心情绪驱动因素。
国内方面，中央经济工作会议强调将灵活运用降准降息等多种政策工具保持流动性合理充裕，加快构建房地产发展新模式，继续放松限购、鼓励收购存量商品房。灵活运用降准降息工具与房地产政策优化为国内市场提供支撑。
基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产不畅，国内精ɓ..海外精矿供给紧张与国内库存低位构成基本面支撑。
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