节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10


印尼能源与矿产资源部拟于明年初修改镍矿内贸计价方式，此举将直接推高冶炼企业矿石采购成本，挤压无资源优势的中小型冶炼产能，显著抬升全球镍成本曲线的底部。这一政策调整通过重塑镍矿内贸定价机制，强化上游资源端对产业链的影响，从源头对下游冶炼环节形成成本约束，推动全球镍产业成本结构重构。

短期内，市场对镍矿采购成本上升的预期驱动情绪面反弹，但高企的显性库存与疲弱的下游需求将制约价格反弹高度。当前镍市供需矛盾未获根本缓解，库存积压叠加终端消费乏力，使得成本推动型反弹缺乏持续支撑，价格上行空间受限，市场将维ƌ..

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