节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
长江有色金属网数据显示，截至1月7日，含铜58-59%的黄杂铜现货均价报52900元/吨，单日下跌300元；含铁<4%的破碎黄铜同步下探至59000元/吨，传统加工材领域面临需求收缩与成本倒挂压力。再生铜供应端，国内回收体系扩容致原料短期过剩，长三角加工产能同比明显扩张，但下游铜棒、铜板带企业开工率低位，供需错配引发库存积压，部分企业降价回笼资金；东南亚再生铜锭到岸价与国产料价差收窄，加剧市场抛压。
传统下游需求持续萎缩，五金卫浴、水暖配件等行业需求疲软成主要拖累，1月黄铜制品订单同比减少，中小厂商成品库存周转天数延长。欧盟碳关税新规增加出口成本，部分订单转向新兴市场；新能源汽车连接器等新兴需求尚未形成规模替代，行业转型阵痛加剧。政策与成本双重挤压下，...
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