节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：9/10
1月7日消息，美国潜在进口关税正以前所未有的方式重塑全球铜供应链。美国COMEX期铜价格因关税预期持续大幅高于伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准铜价，引发跨太平洋套利贸易狂潮，直接导致中国主要港口保税仓库库存迅速减少。尽管去年7月特朗普总统决定仅对铜产品而非精炼铜加征关税，一度降温相关交易，但关税落地预期未消散，COMEX铜价溢价再度扩大。
这驱使贸易商将大量符合CME交割标准的品牌铜（尤其是智利产电解铜）从全球供应链各角落，特别是中国保税区，运往美国交割或储存。2025年11月中国精炼铜出口量飙升至14.3万吨月度高位，其中5.77万吨发往美国，全部源自上海等港口保税库存。
库存转移产生多重连锁效应。一是全球范围ņ..
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