节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
原铝周度产量保持稳定；即期冶炼利润有所回升，系电解铝价格上涨所致。消费方面，国内现货贴水扩大，系价格上升打压需求所致；下游龙头企业开工率环比下降，各版块开工率均有下滑；淡季铸锭量增加、价格上涨也对需求形成压制；内外价差收窄、铜铝比值回落，估值存在修复空间。
氧化铝方面，现货价格持稳；周度运行产能环比上升，月度维持净进口，总库存继续增加，过剩局面持续；行业亏损幅度有限，减产逻辑仍不强。到期仓单及供需过剩压制近月合约，远月受利好因素推涨，基差转为负值，交仓将再次发生。需关注减产可能性及政策动向。
合金厂开工率高位回落，随着汽车行业步入淡季，合金需求将走弱；成本因原铝价格高企而保持坚挺；采购交投清淡，社会库存高位小幅回落。ADC12与原铝的价差小幅回落，更...
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