节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:6/10
近日沪镍增仓上行,上涨核心驱动来自印尼政策预期扰动与资金溢出效应共振。消息端方面,印尼政策变化主导盘面走向:其一,印尼政府将2026年镍矿开采配额目标设定为2.5亿吨,同比下调三分之一,但参考2025年初配额削减后通过补充审批扩容的经验,实际落地值或相对宽松;其二,印尼拟修订镍参考价公式,将镍伴生矿钴列为独立商品并征收1.5%-2%特许权税,虽镍矿中钴含量仅约0.1%,但因其市场价值为镍的两倍,政策落地将从矿端抬高单镍吨价值中枢ϼ..
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