Indonesia will take a more active role in shaping global commodity pricing. Recently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it will adjust coal production to maintain coal prices and prevent further declines. Notably, Indonesia contributes over 40% of the world’s coal supply, underscoring its significant influence on the global coal market.

The revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is a strategic move to stabilize global coal prices. This policy aims to balance supply and demand, addressing the persistent oversupply that has weighed on coal prices. At the 2025 ESDM Performance Achievement Press Conference in Jakarta on January 8, Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that coal production will be reduced to support favorable prices, ensure resources are passed on to future generations, and uphold environmental justice—rejecting the short-sighted approach of depleting all resources immediately.

Indonesia’s dominant coal supply share has led to market imbalances. Global coal trade volume is approximately 1.3 billion tons, with Indonesia supplying 514 million tons, or around 43% of the total. This excessive supply has ...