节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:10/10


电解铝方面,美国就业数据新增岗位不及预期但失业率有所下降,预计美联储本月维持利率不变。委内瑞拉地缘政治风险抬升资源品溢价,有色金属整体情绪较高。供应端国内及印尼新增产能继续释放增量,澳洲Tomago铝厂2028年电力合同到期或无法续约。消费端周度铝加工开工率保持低位,周末国家税务总局发布光伏取消出口退税。

整体受宏观环境和资金轮动效应主导,铝价快速上行。光伏出口退税取消或引发短时间光伏赶工,板块消费阶段性提升,预计铝价偏好震荡,后续关注宏...铝价下方支撑23500元/吨

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