节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利好参考度:4/10


传统分析国家/地区钢铁消费,多以成品钢材消费量、粗钢表观消费量及人均指标为核心。世界钢铁协会数据显示,美国等部分发达国家人均成品钢材消费量呈缓慢下降态势:1968-1979年波动于400-500kg,1980-2008年多数年份在300-400kg,2019年至今维持300kg左右。部分研究据此认为发达国家钢铁消费逐步减弱,经济越发达消费越弱,并预测中国未来人均及总量将持续下降。

钢铁具有鲜明材料属性,22大类产品无法直接被终端消费,需经加工成含钢建筑、设施或工业品后实现消费。当前全球产业链分工下,部分发达国家转移含钢工业品制造环节,通过进口替代本土直接用钢,表面成品钢消费下降,但实际铁素资源消费未实质减少。

美国经济分析局数据显示,2011-2017年美含钢工业品净进口额1000-3000亿美元,2018-2020年3000-4000亿美元...

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