节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：4/10
铁矿石期货1月上旬见顶后下跌，主力合约自1月8日高点831.5元/吨最大跌幅11.5%，春节后止跌反弹。宏观面多空交织：国内“十五五”开局稳投资，财政支出只增不减、地产三条红线放松、上海限购松绑，政策支撑价格；国际中东冲突升级，美以袭伊致局势紧张，原油走强推通胀、削弱降息预期，美元突破60日均线，全球空头情绪升温，黑色系受钢材出口冲击逻辑影响。中国对海合会6国钢材出口1321万吨（出口流向第三），霍尔木兹海峡关闭、杰贝阿里港停滞，冲突持续将致钢材出口成本上涨、需求流失。
供需面有望边际改善：供应端全球铁矿石累计发运量2.73亿吨（..钢厂盈利，铁水将续升，需求边际抬升；库存端港口库存1.71亿吨（历史高位），但需求走强有望缓解，钢厂进口矿库存降至9085万吨（同期低位），刚需采购支撑价格，远期现货溢价回升印证。
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